Kembla Grange Race 6 – G2 Sheraco Stakes – 1200m
#4 Entriviere – $2.25
Pretty keen to be with the Kiwi mare Entriviere. Most of these come through the G3 Toy Show last start and they look to be an even lot of fillies and mares. We saw this mare once in Aus back in April where JMac rode and she went around the middle of the track, she did a power of work and was only narrowly beaten by Fasika. Maps well and has a lot of upside. The one to beat.
Kembla Grange Race 7 – G2 Theo Marks Stakes – 1300m
#4 Madam Rouge – $10/$3
She resumes after campaigning in QLD throughout the Winter, a recipe for success in the Waller stable. She ran well without winning last prep and her trial was ok behind Nature Strip and September Run albeit well beaten. With the inside gate, J Mac, and residual fitness from the Brisbane campaign she can trail a hot speed and have the last crack at them. Each way.
Kembla Grange Race 8 – G2 Run To The Rose – 1200m
#2 Anamoe – $2.45
He’s the one to beat and it’s that man again – J Mac. Was super last prep and you can make an argument he should have won the Slipper, but what cost him that day is the risk you take with Anamoe, he’s a filthy backmarker. He’ll spot these a start again but the trial suggests he’s come back super. It might be heart in mouth stuff halfway up the straight but with any luck, he’ll round these up.
Flemington Race 6 – G2 Let’s Elope Stakes – 1400m
#3 Quantum Mechanic – $21
#11 Ripper Rita – $20
#13 Bonvicini – $31
These fillies and mares races are often nigh impossible to narrow down and this looks a tricky race. Going to have a small investment on these three at big prices and cling to the rosemary beads. Quantum Mechanic – resumes after racing well last prep and trial ok, loves Flemington. Ripper Rita – trialled better than Quantum Mechanic beating it and a Cox Plate winner in Sir Dragonet home. Bonvicini – will be suited over further but has shown ability and started $5.50 in a handy Listed race before spelling, in a good stable and could surprise fresh.
Flemington Race 7 – G2 Bobby Lewis – 1200m
#4 Splintex – $10/$3.2
Another really competitive race, this time up the straight six. Splintex travels down from Sydney when narrowly beaten in what turns out to be a handy form race. He gets Craig Williams and will sit up on speed, in a tricky race, I’ll have something on him each way.
Flemington Race 8 – G1 Makybe Diva – 1600m
#4 Imaging – $26/$6
The feature of the day and a tricky race to decipher. Imaging is not getting any younger and can be hard to catch but his last start was on par with Mo’unga considering he was held up early in the straight. He seems to perform best when fresh and a replication of his Group 1 Orr Stakes run last prep can see him be competitive in this. With question marks around so many runners I’ll nibble this each way.
Melbourne Storm ($1.36) VS Manly Sea Eagles ($3.10) – Sunshine Coast Stadium
What a way to kick off finals footy! These two clashed back in round 21 where Melbourne came out on top 28 to 18, thanks mainly to having 58% possession and Manly only being tackled once inside Melbourne’s 20m for the first 58 minutes of the game! With the Storm having ALL the early ball it was still locked up 8 all at halftime. Every attacking chance Manly got they just about scored. I think Manly can upset the minor premiers, bring it on!
Suggested bet – Manly Sea Eagles +8.5 @ $2
Parramatta Eels ($1.40) VS Newcastle Knights ($3) – Browne Park, Rockhampton
If you had Browne Park in Rockhampton hosting NRL finals footy on your 2021 bingo card, congratulations and go collect! This game has the potential to be the most one-sided of the lot. Parra put a reserve grade side out last week against a full-strength Penrith and were right in it at halftime, before being blown away late. The week prior their big guns destroyed the Storm. They are unpredictable the Eels, but they look to be coming good at the right time. The Knights are the Knights.
Suggested bet – Parramatta Eels -8 @ $2
Melbourne ($1.48) VS Geelong Cats ($2.65) – Optus Stadium
The last time these two met was in round 23 when Melbourne overcame a 44 point third-quarter deficit to bag a win after the siren thanks to a goal from Max Gawn. In the pressure cooker of finals footy, there is no way Geelong would blow such a lead. There are certainly question marks over Melbourne’s ability to handle the big occasion, and at the current prices, I am more than happy to back Geelong on the big stage.
Suggested bet – Geelong Cats +11.5 @ $2
Port Adelaide ($1.42) VS Western Bulldogs ($2.85) – Adelaide Oval
The Dogs booked their spot in this thanks to an entertaining 1 point victory over the Lions last week, a match that could have gone either way for the majority of the clash. Port comes in off the week break after beating Geelong quite convincingly in their qualifying final. These two met twice this season for a win apiece, but Port looks to be flying at present and they can book their place in the GF.
Suggested bet – Port Adelaide -14.5 @ $2
Monday morning (3am AEST)
Carolina Panthers ($1.50) VS New York Jets ($2.60) – Bank of America Stadium
It’s great to have the NFL back!
Fittingly, Sam Darnold debuts for Carolina against the team that traded him in the off-season. The Panthers also welcome back all-pro RB Christian McCaffrey who missed most of last season through injury. Zach Wilson, a dynamic rookie out of BYU, is the biggest roster addition for the Jets. Both teams have bottom 10 ranked defensive units which should equal passing success and points.
Suggested bet – Total Points Over 44 @ $1.87