March 30, 2022

Full Round 3 Preview

The round kicks off with a cracker when the Western Bulldogs host the Sydney Swans on Thursday night. There were fantastic scenes from the SCG last week after Buddy-Mania swept the ground after his 1000th goal. Just epic stuff. Then Sunday sees the clash of the Saints and Richmond. I can’t split them…can you?

Let’s get stuck into Round 3 shall we…

Western Bulldogs ($1.75) vs Swans ($2.10)

  • What scenes last week after Buddy’s 1000th!
  • Dogs winless to start 2022
  • Swannies 2 from 2 in 2022
  • Dogs conceded 7 goals in 2nd qtr last week

It was Buddy-mania last week at the SCG when he slotted his 1000th goal & it was great to witness the scenes that followed. How good is footy. Back to this game though and the Dogs are really struggling to ice games, they conceded 7 goals in the 2nd qtr last week and their inability to finish late in the piece cost them victory. Genuine concerns. The Swans are riding a wave and as long as last week isn’t too much to back up from, they’ll win again.

Melbourne ($1.22) vs Essendon ($4.40)

  • Dees off to a flyer
  • Bombers are not
  • Bombers Zach Merrett out for up to 8 weeks
  • Petracca is the man
  • This could get ugly

Melbourne have started their premiership defence in fine fashion & will be looking to start the year 3 from 3 against the struggling Dons. Essendon skipped to a 24 point 2nd qtr lead against the Lions last week before letting down their fans and capitulating. Whilst the Dees probably cover the 26.5 point line, I’m more than happy to back Petracca to kick 2 or more goals at $2.25.

Crows ($3.20) vs Port Adelaide ($1.35)

  • Showdown LI
  • Both teams winless
  • Port woeful last week when thumped
  • Port won the last 4 against the Crows
  • Last time they met – Port won 55-51

Showdown LI will take place under the Friday Night Lights of the Adelaide Oval. These are always intensely fought battles with passion often overflowing (both on & off the field!). Port could not have been worse last week when thumped by Hawthorn at this venue. Whilst Adelaide were easily accounted for by the Pies. Both teams in desperate need for a win & this is sure to be a close-fought contest. I’m having a ‘Tribet 1-15’ of either team to win by less than 15.5 points.

GWS ($1.57) vs Suns ($2.40)

  • Saturday footy from Giants Stadium
  • Giants 0 from 2
  • Sunnies 50% win rate…
  • Tom Green averaging 32.5 disposals

The Suns ran into the hot Melbourne juggernaut last week but did stick with them for most of the game and were far from disgraced. The winless Giants have run into Sydney and the Tigers to start their campaign and performed admirably in both, especially rising star Tom Green. I’m expecting this to be a close game and one the Suns can win.

Pies ($2.60) vs Cats ($1.50)

  • Can the Pies go 3-0?!
  • Back to back weeks of 100+ scores for the Pies
  • Is Craig McRae a magician?
  • Cats blown off the park last week against Sydney (even before literally being blown off by the fans! haha)

Credit to the Pies, they are in red hot form to start 2022 playing this more attacking style of play that has seen them score 100+ points in back to back matches. Something they only managed to achieve once all of last season. The Cats have also tried to adopt a more attacking style of play but were completely blown away by the Swans last week. If the Cats are to bounce back they will need to improve.

Lions ($1.10) vs Nth Melb ($7.25)

  • Lions looking to go 3 from 3
  • Back to the Gabba for the Lions
  • North Melbourne got the W last week
  • This could be a bloodbath
  • Neale excellent last week

Not going to waste too much time on this. Lions win well but are unbackable odds. Lachie Neale was the star of the show for the Lions last week with 41 disposals, 22 contested possessions, 12 clearances & 2 goals. At a big price, I’m going to back him to kick 2+ goals again!

Carlton ($1.55) vs Hawthorn ($2.45)

  • Somehow, this is a top of the table clash!
  • One team to taste defeat for the first time in 2022
  • Blues fans booking GF accommodation
  • Chad Wingard still a possibility to play (at time of writing)

At the time of writing, Chad Wingard is still a possibility of lining up for the Hawks after scans only showed minimal damage to his hamstring & by the time you read this we may know his fate. I suspect he’ll be given the week off as no reason to risk further injury this early in the season. Carlton have started 2022 fast and I can’t see any reason why they can’t continue on their winning ways. As painful as that is to say…haha.

St Kilda ($1.92) vs Richmond ($1.88)

  • Riewoldt & Grimes expected to return for the Tigers
  • Saints bounced back to win against Freo
  • Tough game as the market suggests

This is a really tough game to have too much confidence in but with the return of Jack Riewoldt, and to a lesser extent Grimes, I am leaning the Tigers way but so is the market. Jade Gresham has had 24 & 25 disposals to start the season and I’ll be backing him to have 80+ AFL Fantasy Points. Something a bit different, who doesn’t love a little prop bet flair?!

West Coast (TBA) vs Freo (TBA)

  • Waiting on team lists. Please check back later.

I’ll keep the powder dry for this one until there is more certainty around the make up of both sides. Please check back later. Cheers.

Good luck & good punting!

*All prices and lines are correct as of the time of writing & are courtesy of Ladbrokes, who are offering $2 lines on Thursday & Friday games during Round 3. T&C’s apply, check their website for more details.

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